The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking a small tropical disturbance just east of the southern Caribbean islands. Right now, upper level winds are preventing development. It is still too soon to be saying “Hello Dolly” to a potential fourth named storm of the season.

The system will continue west and may eventually contribute to the development of a storm in the Pacific off the coast of Central America.

Over the Carolinas, a giant upper-level low continues to spin, influencing the weather up and down the East Coast of the U.S. The tropical moisture channel feeding into that system has been just south of the Florida peninsula.

The circulation and its moisture feed will slowly start to lift north later today, increasing the tropical moisture over South Florida. Our chance of heavy thunderstorms will increase a bit today, with the moisture plume arriving in earnest tonight. Tomorrow expect an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

There is concern for local flooding due to slow-moving tropical downpours, and for areas affected by multiple rounds of heavy rain.

Some heavy thunderstorms continue in the forecast over the weekend into next week, but as the pattern slowly changes and the moisture channel breaks down, more typical summer weather will return.

Look for a murky sky this weekend, the effect of the northern edge of that large plume of Saharan Dust.