By Stephen Diener
The phrase, “and now the moment you’ve all been waiting for” really takes on a new meaning today.
After all the commercials, text messages, mail advertisements, and rallies, we have finally reached the preverbal finish line…hopefully…where we will find out who the winner of the 2020 election will be.
Everyone from your neighbor to your cousin that you only see on the holidays has had something to say about this unprecedented race, but now it is my turn.
After spending way too much time taking all of this in from various outlets, I have come up with what I sincerely believe to be the end result.
And that is an unequivocal landslide, blowout, knockout victory for Donald J. Trump.
Here’s the how and why it is going to happen.
One thing that can not be denied is the eye popping enthusiasm that has surrounded the Trump campaign. Whether it was a pop up parade in Beverly Hills, New York City, Sacramento, or Miami, we saw huge numbers come out in support of the president in places we would never expect.
During such a crazy time in this country, the message that the President has put out has resonated with millions of people. And that enthusiasm, I believe will translate into votes.
Votes from people in parts of the country that we wouldn’t normally expect to see votes come from. Places like California, New York, Minnesota, and South Florida.
That being said, here’s how I see it going down.
To start, Trump will flip 5 states.
From what I have seen in voter enthusiasm, I believe Trump will flip New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes, Nevada’s 6, New Mexico’s 5, Minnesota’s 10, and New Jersey’s 14. Yes, I said New Jersey.
Those 5 states gives him 39 electoral votes that he did not have in his 306-232 victory back in 2016.
From there, I firmly believe he will re take all of the same states he won back in 2016, which includes the swing states of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and yes, Florida.
Because after all, why would the same voters who came out for him in 2016 turn on him now?
I also believe he will end up winning Pennsylvania once all of the votes are counted, but we may not know that for a few days because of their tallying system. Regardless, he won’t need it after taking all of the swing states.
But, even if he doesn’t turn those 5 states I mentioned earlier and ends up losing Pennsylvania, he will still end up with 286 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. (Pennsylvania carries 20 electoral votes).
And not to be forgotten is the 1 electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd congressional district, which he took in 2016.
When you add all of that up, (don’t worry, I’ll do it for you), it comes out with a final tally of 346 electoral votes.
The other factors that will play to this historic victory are going to be a surprising number of votes coming from African Americans, Latino’s, and suburban women.
He will also win the popular vote, which will really drive the media nuts, because of a shocking number of votes that come out from states like California and New York.
He won’t win those states, but he will get much more support than ever expected from the pollsters.
Side note, he’ll also win either Palm Beach, Broward, or Miami-Dade county, which will give him a 5%-8% margin of victory in Florida.
So, after immersing my self in this muddled mess for the past 9 months and making these observations, I have come to the confident conclusion that President Trump will remain in that role for another 4 years with an electoral college victory of 346-192.
But hey, that’s just my prediction.